Apple Thoughts: AT&T, T-Mobile, Verizon and the iPhone...My Thoughts

"Rumors of the iPhone jumping to a US provider outside of AT&T continue to swirl as Apple's exclusivity contract with AT&T looks to expire this year. First it was iPhone + Verizon and now it's iPhone + T-Mobile."

I'm sure by now you have seen numerous reports about T-Mobile possibly getting the iPhone. For months it was that the iPhone was sure to be on the Verizon network (PC World has a timeline in case you are interested), and now it is the T-Mobile rumor that is getting legs, as the mentions of an impending iPhone release on their network keep popping up. Adding to this is a recent one that Verizon will get it but after T-Mobile, as well as one that says the elusive white iPhone 4 will actually be a Verizon iPhone. What to believe? Could there be an additional network from which to choose for your iPhone service? AT&T, and Apple for that matter, took a risk and it paid off big with the iPhone. With that risk, AT&T also got something from Apple, namely exclusivity. With the upgrades in the iPhone year to year, and the addition of the iPad in the mix of products, you can see from their financials that the partnership with Apple is paying off handsomely. I guess it goes back to that old risk versus reward saying. But how is it doing for the customers that, according to Steve Jobs, are so important to Apple? Well here is my two-cents on the topic, and the rumor about T-Mobile.

Figure 1: AT&T has made a lot of money with their association with Apple.

Here is how big the iPhone is for AT&T: 3.2 million. That is the number of activations in just the last quarter for iPhones on the AT&T network, and 27% of that number were new subscribers. To put that in perspective, it is about 10 times the number of 3GS activations that were done the year before. This helped them earn $30.8 billion USD in revenue, which translated to $0.61 USD per share earning. I don't care who you are, that is success for AT&T and for Apple with the iPhone 4. But with that success, I, as a customer of Apple and by default AT&T, have been presented with some troubling issues. These haven't been with the coverage or the speed of the network. For the most part, that aspect has been pretty good for me. What troubled me were the changes in the AT&T plans just before the iPhone 4 was announced, one of which was doing away with the unlimited plans. This on it's own isn't so bad, since I'm already on that plan and intend to keep it. What I didn't like was the part about not getting tethering UNLESS I switched from that plan to one of the newer capped plans, namely the 2GB plan. With AT&T the only game in town for the iPhone, it means if I keep my unlimited plan I don't get to take advantage of a feature I really want. And not only does the tethering tied to limited plans bother me, but the $20.00 USD surcharge just to be able to use it, without adding any more data to my plan, really chaps my, well, let's leave it at it bothers me. I know why they did it, but that doesn't have to mean I like it. But as it is now, I have to take it since I have no other choice if I want to keep my iPhone (unless I jailbreak it of course but I'm speaking as a regular consumer that doesn't want to, or can't, alter the phone). It was in learning about these changes that I really wished there was some competition for AT&T when it comes to the iPhone. And then the T-Mobile rumors started again, but this time I paid more attention.

T-Mobile would be a winner for the iPhone customer for a few reasons, but most importantly it would give them a choice. I think I'm pretty lucky with coverage with AT&T, but in checking with T-Mobile, they also have pretty good coverage in the areas I frequent. This means I will have a choice for my network. Choice then leads to another benefit, for those that switch and those that remain since if enough customers make the switch, it means that the AT&T network will not be as burdened as it is by so many subscribers. And with all the complaints about AT&T, I can't imagine a substantial number won't make the switch to T-Mobile. Let's face it, AT&T hasn't done anything to endear itself to it's customers in recent memory, especially when it comes to their recent plan changes.

Competition usually benefits the consumers that are given choice. If I don't like the higher priced data plan with it's restrictions, I can always make the move to T-Mobile and get on their unlimited family plan. Even with adding 3 additional lines, I'm money ahead. Do I know how they would handle tethering? No. Do I know if they will change their unlimited plan if they get the iPhone? No. But what I do know is that competition usually benefits the customer, and it makes sense that to get customers, T-Mobile may have to offer something different than AT&T, such as a less restrictive plan for the iPhone.