Apple Thoughts: AT&T Hopes to Extend iPhone Exclusivity

"When Randall Stephenson became AT&T Inc.'s chief executive, the company had just started offering the iPhone. The blockbuster device has since reeled in millions of new customers and helped revitalize the telecom giant's brand. Shane Kislack for The Wall Street Journal AT&T CEO Randall Stephenson, shown in his office, aims to lock up the iPhone and overhaul Ma Bell's marketing. But AT&T's exclusive deal to carry the iPhone in the U.S. expires next year, according to people familiar with the matter, and Mr. Stephenson is now in discussions with Apple Inc. to get an extension until 2011."

I have a feeling that extension will happen. Apple's options are semi-limited. Part of the success in the iPhone has come from thef fact that they've only ever had to make two skus at a time, a low and a high capacity version of the same phone. Same internals, same OS, same everything, just different capacities. If Apple were to produce another phone, a CDMA version, they'd have to succumb to Verizon's control-freak attitude about the phone's OS and theme and it would have to have all of Verizon's additional overpriced services on the menu. Sprint would probably want their mobile TV and other silliness on their home screen, and T-Mobile, if the iPhone went to another GSM carrier, would insist on it having a T-Mobile theme with My Faves on the home screen.

Part of the reason the AT&T partnership with Apple worked so well was that AT&T got out of Apple's way and let them do their thing. I don't really see any of the other carriers doing the same right now. Maybe dangling the iPhone under their nose might get them to change their ways, but that's not something I'd hold out hope for. AT&T will probably end up with the exclusivity as long as the agreement continues to work for both parties.