Apple Thoughts: Apple Bailing on MacWorld is Smart

"The problem for Apple is that almost everyone in the Mac community knows that there's a chance of new products coming at Expo. Starting in the fall, there are almost daily sightings of potential new models or software revisions, the latest being the Mac mini rumor. So, what happens? It becomes common wisdom for Mac customers to avoid a CPU purchase in the month before the show, just in case a new, better model is released. Or to skip a software upgrade. This effect will happen even if someone doesn't want a new model - they might be able to get a deal on the older generation of machine out in distribution. The Mac market stops and waits for Expo."

Whether or not Apple is to blame for the vacuum that's created in the months after their fall event (which is usually all about iPods) is immaterial to the fact that there is indeed a vacuum. Apple does do well as far as selling Macs go over the holidays, but no one in their right mind would be an Apple product that hadn't been revised or updated in the months leading up to the holiday season. Even this year, while notebook sales were great, desktop sales were on the floor and hiding under the table mostly because the iMac and Mac Mini haven't been updated in (what feels like) an eternity. Knowing you would be buying a machine that's obsolete as soon as you walk it out the door, why would you do it? I know I wouldn't, and most people who are "in the know" wouldn't either.

There's been a lot of talk about Apple hurting the little guys by backing out of the expo. What the talkers fail to realize is that Apple is hurting itself, in some ways, by staying in, and Apple has a bigger obligation to its shareholders than it does to some accessory maker that makes another iPod speaker dock or pair of headphones. They have to maximize holiday sales, particularly in rough economic times, and that just isn't going to happen when a good majority of your user base is aware that you're updating your products a few weeks later.